Poll math doesn't add up
March 15, 2004
DAVE RAHME, Post-Standard
Three weeks into the season, picking the top three
teams in Division I lacrosse is easy. Johns Hopkins,
Maryland and Syracuse are the early class of the country.
From there, the logjam is a poll voter's nightmare.
Veteran Navy coach Richie Meade summed it up nicely,
referring to a 12-9 home loss his Midshipmen suffered
to Ohio State two weeks ago, followed by a 9-8 overtime
victory at No. 4 North Carolina the following week.
"We were the worst team in America last week and
I didn't know how to coach," Meade said. "Now
. . . we're better."
Navy is far from alone. The number of teams ranked
Nos. 4 to 25 in the preseason that have won and lost
big games already in this young season is so mind-boggling
that the coaches asked to vote in the USILA's weekly
top-20 poll are clearly confused. Consider:
Unranked Air Force defeats No. 2 Virginia on the opening
week and moves to No. 14 the second week. Virginia,
which loses to unranked Denver the following day, drops
to No. 16. Last week, Air Force loses to unranked Army
in overtime and falls to No. 20 with a 2-1 record. Virginia
loses by six goals at home to Syracuse to fall to 1-3.
Virginia moves ahead of Air Force in the poll at No.
17. Huh?
No. 12 Cornell defeats No. 11 Hofstra on the road on
Week 1 and improves to No. 10 in the poll, while Hofstra
falls to No. 19. The Big Red loses to Georgetown the
following week, while Hofstra defeats No. 7 Loyola,
again at home. Hofstra (11) is ranked No. 11 this week;
Cornell (1-1) is No. 13. Huh?
Unranked Navy defeats No. 4 North Carolina on the road
and moves to No. 15 in this week's poll at 2-1. The
Tar Heels (1-1) come in six places better at No. 9.
Huh?
Loyola (1-1), which lost at Hofstra, is ranked No.
12 this week. Cornell (1-1), which won at Hofstra, is
No. 13.
"I don't know," Meade said when asked to
explain it. "I've never been a good 'figure-it-out'
guy. I know everybody was surprised that Air Force beat
Virginia. I don't think people are surprised that Air
Force has a good team or Denver has a good team. Everybody
is kind of looking up to Maryland, Hopkins and Syracuse
right now. After them, so many guys have been working
so hard for so long, everybody has good players and
is well-coached."
So much so that with most teams only two games into
the season when the latest poll was released, 14 of
the residents in the top 20 had already lost a game
(Denver became No. 15 when it lost a day after the poll
was released and Notre Dame No. 16 when it fell to SU
on Thursday).
Fortunately, the coaches' poll will not be a determining
factor when the NCAA selection committee meets in May
to figure out which teams should get the 10 at-large
berths to the 16-team tournament. That process will
be determined by Ratings Percentage Index, a complicated
formula that analyzes a team's won-loss record, the
won-loss record of its opponents and the won-loss record
of its opponents' opponents.
By the way, according to the RPI formula employed by
laxpower.com, Rutgers is actually the top-ranked team
in the country two games into the season. Sorry, Hopkins.
Local connections
Sophomore Ryan Blair (Auburn) had two goals and an assist
to help North Carolina hand Denver its first loss of
the season Tuesday in Denver . . . Junior attack Brendan
Russell (Jamesville-DeWitt) had a goal and an assist
in each of Albany's first two games, a 16-5 victory
over Manhattan and a 17-6 loss at top-ranked Johns Hopkins
. . . Freshman Marty Ward (Syracuse/Corcoran) has won
the starting goalie job at Division II power Limestone
College, which lost to New York Tech in last year's
title game.
© 2004 The Post-Standard. Used with permission.
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