Poll math doesn't add up
March 15, 2004

DAVE RAHME, Post-Standard

Three weeks into the season, picking the top three teams in Division I lacrosse is easy. Johns Hopkins, Maryland and Syracuse are the early class of the country.

From there, the logjam is a poll voter's nightmare. Veteran Navy coach Richie Meade summed it up nicely, referring to a 12-9 home loss his Midshipmen suffered to Ohio State two weeks ago, followed by a 9-8 overtime victory at No. 4 North Carolina the following week.

"We were the worst team in America last week and I didn't know how to coach," Meade said. "Now . . . we're better."

Navy is far from alone. The number of teams ranked Nos. 4 to 25 in the preseason that have won and lost big games already in this young season is so mind-boggling that the coaches asked to vote in the USILA's weekly top-20 poll are clearly confused. Consider:

Unranked Air Force defeats No. 2 Virginia on the opening week and moves to No. 14 the second week. Virginia, which loses to unranked Denver the following day, drops to No. 16. Last week, Air Force loses to unranked Army in overtime and falls to No. 20 with a 2-1 record. Virginia loses by six goals at home to Syracuse to fall to 1-3. Virginia moves ahead of Air Force in the poll at No. 17. Huh?

No. 12 Cornell defeats No. 11 Hofstra on the road on Week 1 and improves to No. 10 in the poll, while Hofstra falls to No. 19. The Big Red loses to Georgetown the following week, while Hofstra defeats No. 7 Loyola, again at home. Hofstra (11) is ranked No. 11 this week; Cornell (1-1) is No. 13. Huh?

Unranked Navy defeats No. 4 North Carolina on the road and moves to No. 15 in this week's poll at 2-1. The Tar Heels (1-1) come in six places better at No. 9. Huh?

Loyola (1-1), which lost at Hofstra, is ranked No. 12 this week. Cornell (1-1), which won at Hofstra, is No. 13.

"I don't know," Meade said when asked to explain it. "I've never been a good 'figure-it-out' guy. I know everybody was surprised that Air Force beat Virginia. I don't think people are surprised that Air Force has a good team or Denver has a good team. Everybody is kind of looking up to Maryland, Hopkins and Syracuse right now. After them, so many guys have been working so hard for so long, everybody has good players and is well-coached."

So much so that with most teams only two games into the season when the latest poll was released, 14 of the residents in the top 20 had already lost a game (Denver became No. 15 when it lost a day after the poll was released and Notre Dame No. 16 when it fell to SU on Thursday).

Fortunately, the coaches' poll will not be a determining factor when the NCAA selection committee meets in May to figure out which teams should get the 10 at-large berths to the 16-team tournament. That process will be determined by Ratings Percentage Index, a complicated formula that analyzes a team's won-loss record, the won-loss record of its opponents and the won-loss record of its opponents' opponents.

By the way, according to the RPI formula employed by laxpower.com, Rutgers is actually the top-ranked team in the country two games into the season. Sorry, Hopkins.

Local connections


Sophomore Ryan Blair (Auburn) had two goals and an assist to help North Carolina hand Denver its first loss of the season Tuesday in Denver . . . Junior attack Brendan Russell (Jamesville-DeWitt) had a goal and an assist in each of Albany's first two games, a 16-5 victory over Manhattan and a 17-6 loss at top-ranked Johns Hopkins . . . Freshman Marty Ward (Syracuse/Corcoran) has won the starting goalie job at Division II power Limestone College, which lost to New York Tech in last year's title game.


© 2004 The Post-Standard. Used with permission.

 
 
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