The Swami's Top 16
March 18, 2004

from LaxSwami.com

Last week we learned a couple of things: first, the large gap lamented in last week's comments between Georgetown and a team it beat by 10 goals, Cornell, is now rectified by moving the entire trio of (one goal differential) Cornell-Hofstra-Loyola down several notches. This is done largely because Duke thrashed Loyola, and because UMBC has a much better loss margin (3 goals) to Duke (thereby resulting in others being pushed down another notch by UMBC's elevation). Since UMBC is a narrow winner over Ohio State, which defeated Navy (but also lost to Penn State and only defeated Drexel by four goals), that whole associated group (Navy and its overtime victim, North Carolina) is elevated. The second thing we learned is that Army (undefeated, save a four goal loss to Syracuse) dominated Penn--a team which gave Hopkins trouble at Homewood. So Army gets elevated too. A good argument could be made that UMBC is still ranked too high at #8. That may well be true, but OSU's defeat by the Retrievers will have to count for something at this point of the season, and since we know that Navy beat UNC by a single goal (after losing to Ohio State) , does it make sense to move UMBC below Navy?

Notre Dame's loss to UNC drops the Irish appropriately.

The Swami's notions about UMass, Princeton, and Virginia have been borne out so far this season. That Virginia appears anywhere at all in the USILA Top 20 with a single victory over Drexel can only be described as a sad joke--for, notably, Drexel has not received so much as a single vote in the same USILA Poll all season.

What could be very well be shaping up is a season in which we have four or five top teams and a remainder of the field that possesses a unbefore seen degree of parity. If that eventually develops, we are in for a season that should contain many surprises.

The Swami thinks that those who criticize these ranking on the basis of team strength may, in the end, be proved correct. Nevertheless, the purpose of a ranking system is to come up with initial rankings, and adjust them as the various teams prove they are not worthy of them. A ranking system that does anything else is not a ranking system at all. It is merely a reflection of guessing where the teams will finish at the end of the season.

The Swami is always interested in hearing other opinions, especially from those who have seen some of the teams that the Swami hasn't seen. Please email the Swami with your take on things.

(March 16, 2004)

1. Maryland

Undefeated Maryland is the sole most deserving team for the #1 spot--even with a scare from regional foe Towson.

2. Syracuse

The Cruisers performance against Army and Virginia could have been better.

3. Johns Hopkins

The Blue Jays have no real top quality wins yet, and a close game with Penn removes them from #1consideration.

4. Rutgers

Undefeated Rutgers will not get into the tough part of its schedule until next week.

5. Georgetown

A redemptive win over Cornell does not erase an ugly loss to Maryland and the Hoyas' narrow margin over Penn State only serves to raise more questions.

6. Duke

A three goal margin over unranked UMBC doesn't do much for the Devils, but a convincing win over Loyola does.

7. UMBC

Averaged for a narrow win over Ohio State and a loss to Duke, but Duke defeated UMBC by only three goals, five goals better than Loyola's loss margin.

8. (tie) Army

A credible performance against Syracuse is offset by a narrow win over Air Force.

8.(tie) Navy

North Carolina win averaged with Ohio State loss.

10. North Carolina

Defeated unranked UMass, beats Notre Dame, and loses to Navy.

11. Notre Dame

A very convincing win over Penn State, and reasonable performance against #2 Syracuse, confirm that Notre Dame is back.

12. Cornell

Came from behind to defeat Hofstra, but suffered a 10 goal loss to Georgetown.

13. Hofstra

A three goal loss to Cornell and one goal win over Loyola puts Hofstra in the 9 spot.

14. Loyola

Does win the must-win over Towson, loses by a goal to Hofstra, and is soundly beaten by Duke.

15. Princeton

The Tigers have to come from behind to beat Quinnipiac. Princeton's near upset loss to Virginia is of little value.

16. Ohio State

Denver drops from the Top 16 with an 11-6 loss to North Carolina, while OSU benefits from UMBC's close margin against Duke. Air Force is waiting in the wings.
This week's most meaningful games to rankers: North Carolina at Notre Dame, Maryland at UMBC, Rutgers at Army, Cornell at North Carolina.