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What is the Lax Swami's"Big Boyz"
system?...
March 3, 2004
Lax Swami explains his system
for his prognosticator's contest
Anyone can pick the winners of lacrosse games. The
forum is full of people who pick Duke over St. Andrews
every year. But the Big Boyz do not just pick the winners
of games. The Big Boyz use a system of weighted picks,
and confine their picking to the most difficult Division
I games.
Each week the Big Boyz pick the winners of an average
of a dozen games. In a typical 12 game week, winners
are chosen by placing between 1-12 points on a team
(with no number being used twice). If that team wins,
the winner receives the number of points placed on it.
So, for example, in using this system, the prognosticator
would place 12 points on the team he (or she) was most
confidant of winning, 11 points on the second most confidant
pick, down to a single point on the game that the picker
thought was most in doubt. This eliminates most ties
and places a premium on upset picks. It also values
a picker's win/loss record relatively, thus giving little
recognition to luck.
Despite this unique and difficult system, the Big Boyz
are so accomplished at picking that each of the past
two seasons have come down to the final game before
a winner has been decided.
The high number of points the Big Boyz are putting
on that game are a reflection of their confidence factor,
and not an expression of any anticipated point margin
of victory.
The system used here is a "weighted point"
system. There are 11 games this weekend, so the Big
Boyz will assign points from 1 to 11 (using no number
twice) to each game--a total of 66 possible points.
Games won earn the point value placed on that game.
By doing that, counting all wins equally is avoided.
Other competitions value a win such as Denver over Virginia
the same as if Maryland beat Butler. In other words,
a win is just a win. Who would pick an upset under those
circumstances?
In the Big Boyz competition the winners get the points
they put on the games. This means that some wins have
11 times the value of others. One would tend to put
11 points on the game that is thought to be the most
certain win, and fewer points on the less certain outcomes.
One and two point games are often picked as upsets.
One would also think that such a system would help
to avoid ties, but for the past two years, the competition
has come down to the final game of the year.
These guys (and one girl) are pretty good.
You can be a Big Boy too...
Last year's winner was goygoy21. When the Big Boyz
first formed, goygoy was not included. But that did
not stop one of the best prognosticators in the forum.
Persistently, "the Goy" continued to pick
all games using the difficult weighted average point
system. When one of the Big Boyz retired, goygoy 21
was chosen to replace him. One year later he became
the champion. Last year the Goy went out on a limb,
thinking that Penn State would make the NCAA Playoffs.
That shrewd decision tipped the scales in his favor,
as Penn State made the post season for the first time.
This winter the Goy has been sifting through last year's
statistics and promises some surprises.
Next year the Big Boyz will add the person who picks
along with them (through email) this year with the best
record. To put yourself on the list, just email the
Swami and you will be sent an advance set of games to
pick through email.
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