Lax Power's High School Ratings Formula
May 4, 2003
from LaxPower
High School Formula
The modified BCS formula for high school is similar
to the college coaches/
computer rating with some basic differences. The high
school formula is
applied nationally and not to individual divisions or
regions. All the
regions are tied together through regional offset margins
which is discussed
under Computer Ratings. The Polls include 25 teams and
not 15 or 10 as is
the case with college divisions. The strength of schedule
is based on a
weighted average of each team's opponent's power ratings
and not the won-lost
records of opponent's (and their opponent's) as is employed
by the BCS. A
discussion of the Polls, Computer Ratings, Strength
of Schedule, Quality Wins
Factor and Loss Factor as they apply only to high school
are discussed below.
As an example of the formula, the table below illustrates
the results of the
CCR had they applied to the 2001 boys high school lacrosse
season.
Landon received the lowest total (-0.4) based on a poll
ranking of 1 (Inside
lacrosse / Warrior Boys High School Poll), a computer
ranking of 1, a
strength of schedule of 0.4 based on a ranking of 9th
(divided by 25), one
point for one loss and (-3.8) bonus points for quality
wins over Loyola
(0.88), Gilman (0.84), Haverford (0.08), Georgetown
Prep (0.68 * 2.0) and
DeMatha (0.64).
No Team CCR = Poll + PR + SOS + QWF + Loss
1 Landon -0.4 1.0 1.0 0.4 -3.8 1.0
2 Loyola 8.9 4.0 3.0 0.2 -2.3 4.0
3 Garden City 13.3 6.0 2.0 5.8 -1.4 1.0
4 Yorktown 16.9 8.0 6.0 1.8 -0.8 2.0
5 Taft 17.1 12.0 4.0 1.1 0.0 0.0
6 McDonogh 19.1 7.0 9.0 0.3 -2.2 5.0
7 Gilman 24.2 5.0 18.0 0.0 -2.8 4.0
8 West Genesee 27.2 15.0 8.0 0.7 -0.5 4.0
9 Georgetown Prep 27.8 9.0 17.0 0.5 -1.7 3.0
10 Brother Rice 33.3 14.0 7.0 11.3 0.0 1.0
11 DeMatha 33.4 10.0 19.0 1.0 -0.7 4.0
12 Boys' Latin 34.6 11.0 20.0 0.2 -1.6 5.0
13 Northport 38.5 2.0 26.0 9.2 -0.7 2.0
14 Ward Melville 42.0 16.0 10.0 13.4 -0.3 3.0
15 Moorestown 48.0 19.0 23.0 3.2 -0.1 3.0
16 St Anthony's 48.4 21.0 21.0 4.4 0.0 2.0
17 Wantagh 55.6 3.0 49.0 4.1 -1.5 1.0
18 Sachem 58.5 18.0 24.0 13.9 -1.4 4.0
19 Haverford School 61.0 24.0 31.0 1.0 0.0 5.0
20 Fayettev'le-Manlius 66.6 25.0 38.0 1.0 -0.4 3.0
21 Auburn 66.6 17.0 44.0 1.7 -0.1 4.0
22 Mountain Lakes 87.0 23.0 58.0 2.3 -0.3 4.0
23 New Canaan 101.7 20.0 72.0 5.7 0.0 4.0
24 Ridley 116.9 22.0 87.0 4.9 0.0 3.0
25 Pinkerton - - 5.0 9.3 0.0 0.0
26 Upper Arlington - - 11.0 3.4 -0.5 2.0
27 Loomis Chaffee - - 13.0 0.6 0.0 4.0
28 Avon Old Farms - - 15.0 0.8 0.0 3.0
29 Liverpool - - 16.0 0.9 -0.8 5.0
30 Penn Yan - - 12.0 10.8 -0.5 1.0
The system does not currently consider "running-up-the-score"
and weighting
according to when the game was played but both will
be considered by a
coaches committee.
What Games Count?
For high school, all games appearing on a teams schedule
will count as
official games and used in the ratings. All scrimmages
or tournament
games occuring during the season will not count unless
both coaches agree
prior to playing the game that the game(s) will count.
(Contact:
baldo@schore.com). All post-season championship tournament
games will
be treated as official games and will count in a final
CCR.
Polls
The high school poll is based on a poll conducted by
Laxpower and voted on
by high school boys coaches. We currently do not have
a girl's high school
lacrosse poll but hope to implement one at the earliest
date. Girl's high
school coaches, please contact Larry at (laf@laxpower.com)
to be included
on future committees. See Polls for more details
on the polls.
Computer Ratings
The computer ratings will consider only this year's
scores and not past
year's performance. This means that at the beginning
of the season, all
teams are equal. After the fifth week of the season,
computer ratings are
added the the CCR formula. The power ratings are calculated
so that if you
subtract the power ratings of the two opposing teams
and add the home field
advantage, the result should equal the goal margin or
difference in scores
between the two teams. For high school, the power rating
is based on two
components: a local component considering games against
"local" teams and
an external component, based on games played against
all other teams in
other regions. The sum of the two yields the overall
power rating. See
analysis for more details.
Strength of Schedule
For high school, the strength of schedule is based
on a weighted average
of all opponents power ratings and not the won-loss
record of opponents.
The SOS ranking is divided by 300 to normalize it. "
See SOS for more details.
Quality Win Factor
The Quality Win Factor is based on the number of wins
against quality
opponent's. A quality opponent is defined as a team
which is ranked in
the top 25 based on the polls. A victory against the
number one rated team
is worth 1.00 points whereas a victory against the 25th
rated team is worth
0.04 points. See QWF for more details.
Loss Factor
The Loss Factor is simply the sum of all losses by
a team but does not
include intersectional or inter-state losses. See Loss
Factor
for more details.
Summary
In summary for high school lacrosse, the method will
be increasingly
influenced by the coaches and the actual formula will
be voted on by a
special coaches committee. High school coaches, please
contact George @
(baldo@cshore.com) to become a member of these committees.
Conclusion
In summary, the purpose of this new procedure is to
correct problems of past
years and to constantly evolve the system to produce
the fairest results.
Please send opinions and suggestions to (laf@laxpower.com).
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